A European Cure for Balkan Depression

VIENNA – European politics is mostly shaped by events and anniversaries. But while events are often unforeseeable, anniversaries are not.

Five years from now, Europe will be reflecting on the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War 1, which led to a loss of life almost without parallel and set in motion a chain of events that led to the creation of Europe as we now know it.

World leaders may have already reserved some days in August 2014 to mark the occasion. It is easy to predict that Sarajevo will be the place where they will meet to look back on Europe’s savage twentieth century. But how will Sarajevo look in five years? Will it still be the capital of a country whose citizens view the future bleakly and whose politicians have totally lost touch with the electorate? Or is there a hope that European leaders will use the anniversary to announce the successful integration of the remaining Balkan countries into the European Union?

A Balkan Monitor survey recently conducted by Gallup Europe gives suggests the state of public opinion in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo 20 years on from the fall of the Berlin Wall and a decade after the end of the Kosovo war. The findings seem to indicate that the next five years will be a make-or-break period for the region’s future development.

While the overwhelming majority of citizens are convinced that further armed conflict in the region is unlikely, the public’s mood – with the exception of Kosovars and Albanians – is pessimistic. The future promises peace without development. Trust in political elites and in national and European institutions has been steadily declining.

The majority of citizens have experienced a decline in living standards in the last year, and there remains a perception that people have more opportunities outside their own countries. Pessimism about employment is alarmingly high among young people, while corruption and government mismanagement are regarded as being widespread.

All those who have made it their job to praise the stability in the region should look at these figures. Indeed, it is striking that the majority of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina believe that their leaders are not interested in their country joining the EU. An absolute majority of citizens in each of the surveyed countries are convinced that their country is heading in the wrong direction. Less than one in 10 Croats (whose country could be joining the EU in the near future) believes that their country is heading in the right direction.

There are now two options for the region: one is a “shock integration” program that takes all of the Western Balkan states into the EU; the other is a journey into the unknown. The hope that these countries can muddle through on their own is a dangerous illusion. Stability alone can no longer be the EU’s only objective in the region.

The EU’s continuing presence as a colonial power in places like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo could cause even more problems in the future, especially if benefits are not forthcoming. In particular, a delay in Serbia’s integration into the EU could bring Tito-inspired fantasies to the heart of the country’s foreign and security policy.

Thus, demoralization of Balkan society creates a dynamic of its own when the best and the brightest see their future outside of their own countries and where “stability” is just another name for political and economic stagnation.

If European leaders do plan to meet in 2014 in Sarajevo, they should act now. The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty allows for an element of visionary realism in European politics, as there are no longer any institutional obstacles to the future enlargement of the EU.

Today, unlike a year ago, we know how many states are in the Balkans, and the Balkan Monitor results show that all of them want to join the Union. What the EU has learned from the results of the last parliamentary elections in Bulgaria is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the leverage of Brussels over new member states increases rather than diminishes after they join. The EU’s decision to liberalize its visa regime for Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia – and the fact that George Papandreou, the major architect of the EU’s Balkan integration strategy, is back in power in Greece – is another source of optimism.

But it is now or never for the Balkans. Visa liberalization can be a strategic step in the direction of “shock integration,” but if it is not followed by bold political action from the EU, it could merely become a re-packaging of the status quo . In short, the moment has arrived for shaping events instead of simply marking anniversaries.

Ivan Krastev

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.
http://www.project-syndicate.org